Adds wallet track records
TRAIN v0.06
Adds the realized track record (inside TRAIN's sample, before the snapshot) of the wallets buying the launch — how many are known, profitable, losing or high-frequency.
Completed
Definition
Model type
Decision-tree ensemble
Signals used
Market + wallet history
Technical details
max_depth
3
subsample
0.8
n_estimators
300
learning_rate
0.03
min_samples_leaf
10
Random seed
1006
Config hash
44e154af79cc8325
Created
05 Oct 06:00
Completed
05 Oct 06:01
Artifact
models/v0.06/model.json
sha256 140a8d78cd40d8d9…
Dataset & compute
Dataset
Solana Launch Dataset v5
784 snapshots · 157 launches · sha256 a8050102d8fd
Training runs
1
Compute
TRAIN training server (CPU)
GPU hours
—
no GPU used
CPU time
7.3 s
Provider cost
$0.00
nothing purchased
Benchmarks
held-out test set · change vs v0.05
Spotting crashes (−70% within 1h)
0.838
↓ −0.076
Spotting survivors (still traded after 1h)
0.889
↑ +0.007
Spotting 2× runs (within 1h)
0.776
↓ −0.057
Calling the 1h direction (down / flat / up)
47.6%
↓ −7.5pt
Spotting creator dumps (within 1h)
0.824
↓ −0.070
Spotting crashes (within 6h)
insufficient data
—
Spotting survivors (6h)
insufficient data
—
Calling the 6h direction
insufficient data
—
Spotting survivors (24h)
insufficient data
—
Spotting migrations (within 24h)
insufficient data
—
Validation metrics (during training)
collapse_1h
AUC 0.962
n=105
collapse_6h
—
n=0
reach_2x_1h
—
n=105
survival_1h
—
n=105
survival_6h
—
n=0
survival_24h
—
n=0
migration_24h
—
n=0
trajectory_1h
acc 98.1%
n=105
trajectory_6h
—
n=0
creator_exit_1h
AUC 0.697
n=44
Validation launches are separate from training launches and from the locked test set. Benchmarks above are the public numbers.
What this version relies on
held-out validation launches
This version was trained before TRAIN started measuring which signals each model relies on.
For each signal, how much the score drops when that signal is scrambled across launches. TRAIN learns these weights itself from the data; nobody hand-codes them.
Training runs
Attempt 1Succeeded
05 Oct 06:00 · 00:00:03 · 679 examples · $0.00
Timeline
- 05 Oct 06:01TRAIN v0.06 not deployed; v0.01 stays liveReason: no shared benchmarks yet; keeping the live model.
- 05 Oct 06:01Benchmark completed: TRAIN v0.06Crash-spotting score: not enough held-out data yet (n=220).
- 05 Oct 06:01Benchmark started: TRAIN v0.06
- 05 Oct 06:01Training completed: TRAIN v0.0600:00:03 · trained on 679 examples · $0 compute cost
- 05 Oct 06:00Training started: TRAIN v0.06Solana Launch Dataset v5 · decision-tree ensemble · TRAIN training server
- 05 Oct 06:00TRAIN v0.06 queuedAdds the realized track record (inside TRAIN's sample, before the snapshot) of the wallets buying the launch — how many are known, profitable, losing or high-frequency.